Late Fight Conditioning
Championship rounds expose conditioning and mentality. Crawford’s recent tape screams “closer,” while Canelo’s super-middleweight excursions show mixed fuel efficiency.
Trend lines In fights that reach 9-12, Crawford’s punch output rises; Canelo’s historically dips (see Bivol film).
Crawford has a Round-12 KO (Benavidez); Canelo’s late finishes skew earlier (Kovalev Rd 11).
Scorecard politics Judges often reward the fighter “finishing strong.” If Bud sweeps 11-12, a close fight tilts his way—even without a stoppage.
Betting angle Over-10.5 rounds sits at –340. A Crawford Late-KO (Rds 10-12) is a juicy +3100 on some boards—ideal for tiny exposure.
| Metric | Crawford | Canelo | Division Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Late Round Win % | 78% | 72% | 65% |
| Punch Output (Rds 10-12) | +15% | +8% | -5% |
| Knockdowns Suffered (Late) | 0 | 1 | 2.3 |
Fight Goes Over 10.5 Rounds
Both fighters excel in championship rounds, suggesting a long fight.
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