Size and Strength Factors
Canelo rules 168 lb; Crawford is jumping three divisions—historically a graveyard for elite welters.
Experience gap Canelo: 9-0 at super-middle, wins over Smith, Plant, etc.
Crawford: 0 fights at 168 lb—highest official weight 147.
Rehydration reality Canelo routinely rehydrates to ~180 lb on fight night; Bud may scale 168 but function closer to 172, with unknown efficiency.
History is harsh No reigning welter has beaten a reigning super-middle. Kell Brook (147➜160) was broken by GGG; Amir Khan (147➜155) slept vs. Canelo himself.
Betting angle That mass gap explains a market delta: Canelo ML –205 vs. Crawford +158. Parlays that mix Canelo ML with Over 8.5 Rds (–104) tame juice while honoring size advantage without assuming an early KO.
| Metric | Crawford | Canelo | Division Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Natural Weight Class | 147 lbs | 168 lbs | 157 lbs |
| Reach Advantage | +2 inches | -2 inches | Even |
| Power Rating (Higher Weight) | 7.8/10 | 9.2/10 | 8.1/10 |
Crawford Wins by Decision
Speed and boxing IQ could overcome size disadvantage over 12 rounds.
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