Who is favored to win between Canelo and Crawford, and what are the betting odds saying?

Who is favored to win between Canelo and Crawford, and what are the betting odds saying?

In the betting markets, Canelo Álvarez opened as the favorite over Terence Crawford, but not by an enormous margin. Early odds have Canelo around a 2:1 favorite. For example, one opening line put Canelo at -180 to -200 (meaning you’d bet $180–200 to win $100 on Canelo), and Crawford around +150 to +170 (bet $100 to win $150–170 on Crawford). These odds imply Canelo has roughly a 65-70% chance of winning in the bookmakers’ eyes, while Crawford is given about a 35-40% chance.

However, it’s worth noting those odds have been shifting closer as money comes in on Crawford. According to Turki Alalshikh, the betting odds started as wide as 5:1 but moved to about 2:1 and even tighter. This suggests many bettors like the value on Crawford as an underdog, considering his skills and undefeated record. By fight week, we might see Canelo in the -170 range and Crawford +140 or so, indicating growing confidence in Crawford’s chances among fans.

Why is Canelo favored? Mainly the size and proven track record at 168. Odds-makers generally favor the naturally bigger champion, especially one as accomplished as Canelo. He’s also younger (34 vs Crawford’s 37) and has been in these high-pressure fights more often. Another factor: Judges in Las Vegas might favor Canelo’s power shots and he’s the A-side, so if it goes to points, some feel Canelo has an edge – something bettors consider.

Why Crawford has a real shot (hence not a huge underdog): Crawford is regarded as one of the best fighters pound-for-pound. His skill level is arguably above most of Canelo’s recent foes. Many believe if anyone can overcome the size gap with skill, it’s Bud. Additionally, Canelo has had difficulty with slick boxers (Mayweather gave him his first loss, Lara gave him trouble, Bivol outpointed him) and Crawford is extremely slick and smart. So oddsmakers and bettors are tempering the size factor with these considerations.

In terms of predictions: • Professional Boxers’ Takes: Some fighters lean Canelo, citing size. For instance, Regis Prograis predicted “the great big man (Canelo) beats the great little man” overall. David Benavidez expressed skepticism that Crawford can handle 168. On the other hand, others are giving Crawford a real chance due to his skill; a few brave pundits even pick Crawford to pull the upset by decision, believing his ring IQ will flummox Canelo. • Analysts: ESPN’s panel was split in early discussions. Some pointed out Canelo has struggled with movement and that Crawford could outbox him if he can stay safe. Others emphasized Canelo’s body punching could slow Crawford down and turn the tide. • Public: The fanbase is excitedly divided – polls show something like 60% favoring Canelo, 40% Crawford, which is quite close for a fight originally thought to be a mismatch. This buzz and debate have only intensified as the fight nears.

In summary, Canelo is the betting favorite but not overwhelmingly so. Crawford is a live underdog whose odds might tighten further. If you fancy Crawford’s chances and got him at +200 or more early, that’s viewed as good value. If you believe Canelo’s size and power will rule the day, a bet on him still requires a decent outlay due to his favorite status. One thing is certain: this is about as 50-50 a superfight as we’ve seen in a long time, which is exactly why it’s so anticipated.

(Sources: Betting odds from Oddshark and DraftKings reports; Turki Alalshikh noting odds shift; Prograis & Benavidez predictions.)