How to Bet Boxing Underdogs

Betting on underdogs is enticing – who doesn’t love the idea of a big upset and an even bigger payout? In boxing, underdogs do win, but less frequently than in some other sports (because skill disparities tend to manifest clearly in the ring). So you want to be selective and smart about when to back a longshot. Here are tips for underdog betting:

* Find Live Underdogs: Not all underdogs are created equal. A fighter might be +500 simply because they’re relatively unknown but have legitimate skills that haven’t been showcased. These are the ones to target. Look for an underdog with attributes that could trouble the favorite. Maybe they have a awkward style the favorite hasn’t seen, or a granite chin and the favorite’s power is overrated. Perhaps the underdog is a late replacement but in shape and the favorite didn’t prepare specifically for them. Essentially, identify reasons the upset *could* happen that the general public might overlook. When an underdog has a viable path to victory (beyond a “puncher’s chance”), that’s a green light. For example, if an underdog is a slick boxer and the favorite has never fought a fast technical guy, that could be a recipe for an upset. If you can envision how the fight might play out in the underdog’s favor, the bet has merit – assuming the odds are generous relative to that chance.

* Beware of Fool’s Gold Big Odds: Don’t just bet a huge underdog number because it looks tempting (“Wow +800, I’ll throw something on it”). Sometimes +800 is still not worth it if the true chance is near zero. Avoid chasing longshots that have almost no realistic shot. For instance, a journeyman with multiple KO losses facing a prime champion – yeah, anything *can* happen, but that underdog might genuinely be <1% to win. +800 (which implies \~11%) in that case is terrible value because the odds don’t reflect how slim the chance is. Always ask: *why* are the odds so long, and do I honestly think they’re shorter than that? If the answer is no, pass. Discipline is key – not every underdog is worth a sprinkle. Save your bullets (and bankroll) for when your analysis suggests the odds-makers and public might be underestimating the dog.

* Timing and Line Movement: Sometimes it pays to wait on underdogs. If the favorite is popular, the public might bet them heavily, making the underdog’s odds drift even longer. For a high-profile fight, many casual bettors parlay big favorites or bet them late, so the line on the underdog may become more attractive closer to fight night. Watch the line – if you see it getting better and you already liked the underdog, patience can increase your payout. However, if it’s a sharp underdog that knowledgeable bettors like, the line could shorten (get smaller). In that case, bet early to lock in the bigger number. Basically, gauge whether public sentiment will push the odds. If you’re on an underdog that casual fans don’t give a chance, waiting might reward you with +600 turning into +800, etc.

* Partial Hedging or Prop Alternatives: One trick with underdogs, especially big punchers, is to consider betting their method of victory instead of or in addition to the moneyline. Often, if an underdog is going to win, it might be by KO (because winning a decision against a favored champ, especially abroad, is tough). The odds on underdog by KO can be even higher. For example, underdog is +400, but underdog *by KO* might be +600 and *by decision* +1000. If you think the only way he wins is landing the KO, you could take the KO prop for a bigger score. Or you can split: put some on the moneyline and some on the KO prop to juice up potential profit while still cashing something if he wins a decision. Just remember props have the risk of him winning the “wrong” way for your bet. Hedging in-fight is also possible – if your underdog knocks the favorite down early and becomes the live favorite, you could hedge on the other side live to lock profit. But that’s advanced and requires quick action.

* Emotional vs Logical: Many bettors either always avoid underdogs (“the favorite is favorite for a reason”) or throw fun money on huge longshots for the thrill. Try to be more strategic than that. Don’t bet an underdog just because you *want* them to win or you’re a fan – that’s betting with your heart, not your head. Conversely, don’t be scared to bet against a popular star if you’ve identified weaknesses. Boxing history is full of shocking upsets – Tyson-Douglas, Joshua-Ruiz, Pacquiao-Horn – where underdogs overcame massive odds. If you had solid reasoning to foresee even the possibility, those bets pay off massively. The key is research and conviction in your analysis. If you truly see the scenario where the underdog’s strengths exploit the favorite’s flaws, and the odds are rewarding enough, take the shot. You won’t win underdog bets often, but when you do, it makes up for many losses. And even small underdogs (+150 to +300 range) can be bread-and-butter if you identify odds mispricing.

In summary, pick your underdogs like a trainer picks fights for his prospect – carefully and with purpose. Look for *value*, not just big numbers. When you find an underdog bet that you believe has, say, a 40% chance but is priced at 20%, that’s the one to hit. And when you cash in on a well-earned upset, it’s one of the sweetest feelings in betting. Just don’t get greedy and start swinging at every longshot – that’s how you go broke. Aim for calculated upsets and you’ll be the bettor scoring the equivalent of a surprise knockout.

Sources: Inscriber Magazine