Variance

Variance

Mathematics

Definition

The statistical volatility or dispersion of outcomes around the expected value. In betting, variance refers to the short-term ups and downs – the degree of risk or fluctuation in results. High-variance bets have more extreme swings, while low-variance bets are more consistent.

Formula

*N/A* (Quantitatively, variance = $E[(X - \mu)^2]$, but in betting it’s used qualitatively to describe swings.)

Example

Parlays and longshot bets come with high **variance** – you might hit a big win or go on a long losing streak. A bettor might experience losing 10 bets in a row then a huge win; that doesn’t mean their strategy is bad or good by itself – it’s a reflection of normal variance in outcomes.