Definition

A wager that has a positive expected value because the odds are higher than they “should” be given the true probability of the outcome. In simpler terms, a value bet is when a bettor believes the bookmaker’s odds undervalue the chance of the selected outcome. Identifying value is the core of profitable betting.

Formula

Example

If Crawford is +200 (33.3% implied) but you handicap him at a 45% chance to win, that’s a **value bet**. You’d be getting +200 on something you think should be closer to +120. Win or lose in that instance, consistently taking such **value** odds should yield profit over time.