True Odds

True Odds

Mathematics

Definition

The genuine probability-based odds of an outcome with no house edge (vig) included. True odds reflect the “fair” odds if the bookmaker took zero commission, summing to 100% implied probability across all outcomes.

Formula

True odds conversion: adjust each outcome’s implied probability so they sum to 100%. For two outcomes: True implied % = (Implied % / total implied) × 100%.

Example

If one fighter is +150 (40% implied) and the other is -150 (60% implied), the book’s total is 100% (no vig). Those are roughly the **true odds** given the bookmaker’s assessment. Often bettors estimate their own true odds for an outcome and compare to the market odds to spot an edge.