Implied Probability

Implied Probability

Mathematics

Definition

The win probability suggested by the odds, converted into a percentage. It shows how often the outcome must occur for the odds to break even. Comparing implied probability to your own estimated probability helps identify value bets.

Formula

For odds +$O$: $100/(O + 100) \times 100\%$. For odds $-O$: $O/(O + 100) \times 100\%$. (For decimal odds D: $1/D \times 100\%$.)

Example

Odds of +160 have an **implied probability** of $100/(160+100) ≈ 38.5\%$. Odds of -160 imply $160/(160+100) ≈ 61.5\%$. If you believe an underdog has a higher chance to win than the implied probability, it might be a value bet.