Definition

The mistaken belief that past random events influence future ones in a purely random sequence. In betting, it’s the error of thinking an outcome is “due” after a streak of the opposite outcome, even though each event is independent.

Formula

Example

A classic **gambler’s fallacy**: assuming that because the last three big fights ended in knockouts, the next fight is more likely to “go the distance” (when in reality, the past KO streak has no effect on the next fight’s result). Bettors falling for this might incorrectly adjust their wagers based on non-existent patterns.