Edge

Edge

Strategy

Definition

The advantage a bettor has over the bookmaker (or vice versa). Having an “edge” means your probability assessments are more accurate than the odds indicate. The edge is often discussed in terms of percentage difference between true probability and implied probability. Gaining an edge comes from superior knowledge, analysis, or information.

Formula

Edge (%) = (Your estimated win probability – Implied probability from odds) × 100%.

Example

If a bettor figures a fighter has a 55% chance to win and the odds imply only 45%, the bettor has a 10% **edge**. For instance, betting Crawford with that perceived edge repeatedly is likely to be profitable long-term. Bettors find **edges** via tape study, modeling, or inside info that isn’t fully accounted for in the market.