Closing Line Value (CLV)

Closing Line Value (CLV)

Strategy

Definition

A measure of how the odds you bet compare to the closing odds. Positive CLV means you beat the closing line (got a better price than the final market consensus). Over time, consistently achieving positive CLV is seen as an indicator of good betting strategy and likely profitability.

Formula

CLV can be quantified as a percentage change: $\frac{\text{Closing Odds} - \text{Your Odds}}{\text{Your Odds}}$ (for moneyline, one might use implied probabilities or decimal format for calculation).

Example

You bet Crawford at +160, and he closes +130. This is strong **closing line value** in your favor, as you got a much better payout than the closing bettors. If you consistently get +EV lines (positive CLV), you’re likely making good bets. Conversely, if your picks often close at worse odds than you took (negative CLV), that could indicate your bets are on the less sharp side.